Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

447
FXUS64 KMEG 220519
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1119 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1106 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

-A gradual warming trend will begin after tomorrow with high
 temperatures reaching 60 degrees by Monday.

-Rain chances increase Wednesday and Thursday with a new frontal
 passage. Rain accumulation is currently expected to be less than
 one half inch.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 921 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

A very thick layer of midlevel stratus is approaching from the
west this evening. Given its forward trajectory that has not
subsided over the last few hours, there will most likely be a stark
contrast of radiational cooling conditions in our eastern CWA
under clear skies and light winds versus heavy cloud cover in the
west. This may moderate temperatures for eastern AR and the MS
Delta a little bit under the cloud deck. Made a couple tweaks to
cloud cover and overnight MinTs given the latest trends but
otherwise forecast is in great shape.

CAD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

A 1037 mb arctic surface high pressure was centered over
southeast Missouri and south Illinois this morning. Most of the
Midsouth has remained below freezing so far today, but a few
locations in west Tennessee near the Tennessee River and in north
Mississippi have managed to warm into the middle 30s.

High pressure will shift across the Midsouth tonight along with a
positively tilted high amplitude trough. Moisture will remain
scarce across the region through the weekend, well into next week.
Weak return flow will setup late Sunday and a weak ridge will
shift out of the Southern Plains, approaching the Mississippi
River Monday. This pattern will result in a gradual, but steady
warming trend. Much of the Midsouth should remain above freezing
Sunday night into Monday, with widespread 40s expected Tuesday
morning. High temperatures should be mainly in the upper 50s to
middle 60s Monday.

A fast moving clipper system associated with a surface low over
Illinois/Indiana is expected to move across the Midsouth late
Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture will remain limited, so any rain
will likely remain well below one quarter of an inch. The highest
PoPs and QPF will likely be in west Tennessee near the Tennessee
River. High temperatures Wednesday may exceed 70 degrees.

Cooler conditions return after midweek, in the wake of the
clipper system. High temperatures Thursday and Friday should be
in the 50s to low 60s. No freezing temperatures are expected
Tuesday through Friday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Midlevel VFR deck will edge in from the west overnight, in advance
of a weakening upper level trough. Surface winds will become
westerly Saturday afternoon, behind a surface reflection of this
upper level trough passage.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...PWB