Collierville, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS64 KMEG 060411
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1111 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1111 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Warm and humid weather continues each day, with high
  temperatures in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the
  upper 90s to low 100s.

- Heat headlines may be needed into next week, especially across
  the delta regions, where heat index values could exceed 105
  degrees.

- Thunderstorm chances will remain low (less than 20%) through
  Sunday before increasing again (40%-60%) mainly in the
  afternoons and evenings into the upcoming work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Generally a benign weather pattern across the Mid-South this
weekend with temperatures currently in the low 90s and dew point
temperatures hovering in the upper 60s to low 70s. A few, isolated
thunderstorms have developed across northeast Mississippi over the
last hour, with CAMs showing the potential for additional cells
across the TN River Valley through the afternoon. These
thunderstorms will likely be slow movers and dwindle quickly after
forming, so not expecting anything other than our pop-up,
afternoon summertime thunderstorm routine. Quiet and calm
conditions are expected once again overnight, with the potential
for some isolated patchy fog near sunrise in fog-prone areas.

A rinse and repeat of today does appear likely for most of the day
tomorrow, with some increasing cloudiness across our northwest by
the afternoon. As a weak shortwave approaches the region, could
see thunderstorm chances uptick (20-30%) by the late afternoon to
evening hours. Best chances remain across NE AR, MO Bootheel, and
far NW TN. As for our temperatures, high temperatures will likely
return to the mid 90s, with heat index values in the upper 90s to
low 100s. Will note, did decide to hold off on a Heat Advisory
for now for tomorrow afternoon across the MS and AR delta regions.
NBM guidance does have a few locations reaching the 105 mark by
the afternoon, but has been overdoing dew point temperatures a bit
the past few days. In addition, both LREF and HREF guidance has
less than a 20% chance of these locations exceeding 104 degrees
for heat indices tomorrow afternoon, leading to low confidence.
Will re-evaluate with the overnight forecast package, but greater
confidence in the need for heat headlines will not arrive until
Monday.

By Monday, a general summertime weather pattern is expected
through likely the remainder of the week with little upper-level
forcing. Thunderstorm chances will increase each afternoon (40%
to 60%) with chances dwindling following sunset. With the uptick
in moisture, do expect high temperatures to remain closer to
normal in the low 90s. Despite the slight downward trend in high
temperatures, dew point temps will likely remain in the low to mid
70s. This will likely introduce the need for at least some heat
headlines across the Mid-South by Monday and likely continue
through at least midweek. Best chance of exceeding our Heat
Advisory criteria remains across the delta regions, but will be
evaluated on a day to day basis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

No significant changes to the TAFs this issuance. VFR conditions
are expected through tomorrow morning outside of the potential
for some visibility drops at MKL/TUP from mist. Thunderstorm
potential increases tomorrow afternoon around JBR/MEM through 01z.
Confidence is quite low regarding the coverage of thunder around
MEM, but retained PROB30 given the persistence within HiRes
guidance for a few stray showers. Otherwise, VFR will end the
forecast with variable to calm winds into tomorrow night across
the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

No major fire weather concerns through the foreseeable future.
MinRH values will remain above 40% with light winds. Thunderstorm
chances will increase slowly through the upcoming work week, with
less than an inch of rain expected.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JAB